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Using Indicators
Implementing Indicators into Your Trading
Strategy
Introduction
Track ‘n Trade
5.0 includes twenty-five indicators that are displayed in a window below
the Chart Window. This window is referred to as the Indicator Window.
(There are also eleven Overlay Indicators that are displayed
directly on your chart in the Chart Window that are explained in the
next chapter.)
Many of the
indicators included in Track ‘n Trade 5.0 have buy/sell signals. You
will be able to select the indicator to view these signals on the chart.
The indicators that have buy/sell signals are indicated by an asterisk
(*) in the following list of indicators included in your program.
AD: Williams
Accumulation/Distribution*
ATR: Average
True Range
BW:
Bollinger Bandwidth
CCI:
Commodity Channel Index*
CMF Chaikin
Money Flow*
DMI:
Directional Movement Index*
FSTO: Fast
Stochastics*
GTR: Gator
HVOL:
Historic Volatility
KST: Know
Sure Thing*
MACD: Moving
Average Convergence/Divergence*
MFI: Money
Flow Index*
MOM:
Momentum*
OBV: On
Balance Volume
PPO: Percent
Price Oscillator*
%R: Williams
Percent R*
%B: Percent
Bollinger Bands*
PVO: Price
Volume Oscillator*
ROC: Rate of
Change
RSI:
Relative Strength Index*
SRSI:
Stochastic Relative Strength Index*
SSTO: Slow
Stochastics*
TRIX: Triple
Exponential Average*
ULT:
Ultimate Oscillator*
V/OI:
Volume/Open Interest
Displaying
Indicators in the Indicator Window
The Indicator
Buttons are found on the bottom of your screen below the chart window.
The Indicator toolbar can be closed or opened by selecting View on the
Menu bar and clicking on "Indicator Buttons." Display an indicator by
clicking on its corresponding button.

You can also
display an indicator by right-clicking in the Indicator Window and
selecting the indicator you would like to view. Select “Show All” to
view all selected indicators in the Indicator Window at the same time. Selecting "Properties"
will open the current indicator preferences in the Preferences tab of
your Control Panel.
One Button
The One Button
on the left end of your Indicator toolbar allows you to have as many
indicators selected as you like, but only view them one at a time in the
indicator window. To switch between each selected indicator click the
Indicator Information Display to the right of the Indicator Window.


When you click
on the Indicator Information Display window the indicator information
will rotate to the next indicator you have selected (as simulated
above).
All Button
The All Button
will display all the indicators you have selected on the Indicator
toolbar in the Indicator Window. You will still be able to rotate the
information for each indicator to the right of the Indicator Window.
Note: The One
and All buttons can be specified for each chart you have open.
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Williams
Accumulation/Distribution (AD)
Larry Williams
created this indicator in an attempt to measure market pressures. It
specifically looks for a difference in price and measures it through
market sentiment and strength. The key is to look for strong differences
between what the market does and what the indicator does. Looking for
substantial divergence from the AD index versus the underlying chart is
the key to future price direction.
The main thing
to look for is a difference between the AD and the market trend. If a
market were to make a matching or lower low, or a matching or higher
high and the AD fails to follow the market trend, this is divergence.
Divergence implies that a reversal in the dominant trend may be near.
A series of
lower lows would read as a decreasing AD. The pattern created by the AD
and the differences in the chart are what the trader looks for.
Divergence, or a difference from the pattern, is what you want to see.
For example, if the market continues to march to higher territory and
the AD follows by doing the same, then there is no divergence. However,
if the market makes several new highs but the AD fails to make new
highs, it is a warning signal of a market about to reverse direction.
Calculation
The AD index is
computed several different ways. Some computations normalize the index,
while others add extra smoothing factors through the use of moving
averages.
The first
comparison checks for accumulation. (Is the current close higher than
the previous close?) If the market is accumulating, subtract the
difference between current close and low. Add the difference to the
Accumulation/Distribution Index. Traders perceive an undervalued market
and they buy.
If Closet >
Closet-1 then ADt = ADt-1 + (Closet - Lowt)
The second
comparison checks for no change in price. If correct, the AD index does
not change.
If Closet =
Closet-1 then ADt = ADt-1
The last and
final comparison checks for a down market. It looks for the current
close below previous close. If it’s correct, the market is distributing.
The software first computes the difference between current high and
close. Then it subtracts that difference from the AD index. This
measures market distribution. Traders perceive an overvalued market and
are selling.
If Closet <
Closet-1 then ADt = ADt-1 - (Hight - Closet)
ADt:
The accumulation/distribution index for the current period.
ADt-1:
The accumulation/distribution index for the previous period.
Closet: The
closing price for the current interval.
Closet-1:
The closing price for the previous interval.
Hight: The
true high price for the current interval (current high or previous
close).
Lowt: The
true low price for the current interval (current low or previous close).
Example of the Williams AD in the Indicator Window

Preferences
Right-click on
the AD button in your Indicator toolbar and select AD Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the AD preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
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Line:
Choose the color, line style, and line thickness of your line and MA
line. You can also choose to show/hide the MA line and use Williams AD.
View up to four
Thresholds at values and colors of your choice. Choose when you
want Buy/Sell Arrows to show and what color.
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Average True Range (ATR)
The Average True
Range Indicator was developed by Welles Wilder to work with the
commodity industry. The purpose of the ATR is to recognize the level of
volatility in a market. Volatility is a measurement of the change in
price over a given period. It is often expressed as a percentage and
computed as the annualized standard deviation of the percentage change
in daily price.
When a market is
going sideways, it typically exhibits low volatility and is difficult to
trade. A market with higher volatility is typically trending better
which would produce more opportunities to get into a trade. If a
market’s volatility is too high, traders find that the market is too
erratic, and it becomes difficult to trade. In using the ATR, traders
hope to measure the level of volatility to help them interpret the
different markets they are watching. It is important to remember to
consult other indicators or analysis so that you are not relying on only
one indicator to determine market entry or exit.
The ATR’s value
is a measurement of the market volatility. When a market is increasing
in volatility the ATR will have a higher value, and when the market is
decreasing in volatility the ATR will have a lower value.
Calculation
The ATR is a
moving average of the True Ranges defined below. The default period
interval in Track ‘n Trade 5.0 is 5 days. The ATR is calculated based on
the largest of the three distances from the following:
Today’s HIGH to
today’s LOW
Yesterday’s
CLOSE to today’s HIGH
Yesterday’s
CLOSE to today’s LOW
Example of the ATR in the Indicator Window

Preferences
Right-click on
the ATR button in your Indicator toolbar and select ATR Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the ATR preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
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Period:
Specify the number of days to be used in calculating the ATR.
Line: Choose
the color, line style, and line thickness of your line.
View up to four
Thresholds at values and colors of your choice.
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Bollinger
Bandwidth (BW)
Bollinger Bands
measure volatility by placing bands on either side of a moving average.
These bands are charted two standard deviations away from the average.
As the average changes, the values of the two standard deviations also
change. The Bollinger Bandwidth, developed by John Bollinger, represents
the expanding and contracting of the bands based on recent volatility.
During a period
of rising price volatility, the distance between the two bands will
widen (BB Width will increase). Conversely, during a period of low
market volatility, the distance between the two bands will contract (BW
will decrease).
The tendency is
for the bands to alternate between expansion and contraction. When the
bands are unusually far apart, it is often a sign that the current trend
may be ending. When the distance between the two bands has narrowed, it
is often a sign that a market may be about to begin a new trend.
The BW gives an
indication of how wide the Bollinger Bands are as a function of the
middle band. It is used to identify the squeeze at low values and the
end of trends at high values.
Calculation
The calculation
of the BW is here:
Bollinger
Bandwidth = [Top Bollinger Band (x periods)] - [Bottom Bollinger Band (x
periods)] / Simple Moving Average Close (x periods)
Example of the BW in the Indicator Window

Preferences
Right-click on
the BW button in your Indicator toolbar and select BW Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the BW preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
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Period:
Specify the number of days to be used in calculating the BW.
% Deviation:
Define the displacement between the bands.
Type: Choose
from Simple, Linear Weight, or Exponential.
Data: Choose
from either Open, High, Low, or Close.
Line: Choose
the color, line style, and line thickness of your line.
View up to four
Thresholds at values and colors of your choice.
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Commodity
Channel Index (CCI)
The Commodity
Channel Index (CCI) is designed to detect beginning and ending market
trends. The formula standardizes market prices to help spot market trend
deviations.
Donald Lambert,
the creator of this indicator, says that 70% to 80% of all price
fluctuations fall within +100 and -100 as measured by the index. The
calculation for CCI measures the average daily price’s distance from a
moving average of average daily prices.
There are basic
trading rules for the CCI: buy when the CCI exceeds -100 and sell when
the CCI drops below +100. In other words, a buy signal is generated when
the indicator enters the channel, or exceeds -100, coming up from the
bottom. A sell signal is generated when the indicator enters the channel
from the top, or drops below +100.
Followers of the
CCI generally look to establish long positions when the CCI exceeds the
-100 level, indicating that prices are in a strong up trend. Most users
of this indicator also try to look for patterns within the indicator,
such as higher highs, and look for CCI movements to be confirmed by
general price readings as well.
The purpose of
the CCI index is to keep you out of the market during consolidation, or
weak trending periods. By measuring the difference between average
prices and mean average prices, this indicator attempts to isolate only
strongly trending markets, similar to momentum and MACD.
When CCI is
viewed in the Indicator window of Track ‘n Trade 5.0, -100 is 33% of the
window and +100 is 66% of the window. Guides could be set at these two
points for ease in tracking CCI. You could also say that -85 would be
roughly 36% and +85 would be roughly 64% of the window.
Calculation
The proper
calculation of the CCI requires several steps in the proper sequence.
You must first compute the typical price using the high, low, and close
for the interval. Simply, take the average of the three values.
TP = (Hight +
Lowt + Closet) / 3
TPt:
Represents the typical price.
Hight: The
highest price for this interval.
Lowt: The
lowest price for this interval.
Closet: The
closing price for this interval.
Next, calculate
a simple moving average of the typical price for the number of periods
specified.
TPAVGt = (TP1 +
TP2 +... + TPn) / n
TPAVGt: The
moving average of the typical price.
TPn: The
typical price for the nth interval.
N:
Number of intervals for the average.
Compute the mean
deviation.
MDt = (|TPAVG1 -
TP1| + ... + |TPAVG1 - TPn |) / n
MDT: The
mean deviation for this interval.
TPn: The
typical price for the nth interval.
N: Number of
intervals.
Note: The
symbol | | designates absolute value. Negative differences as well as
positive differences are treated as positive values.
Final
computation:
CCIt = (TPt -
TPAVGt) / (.015 x MDT)
CCIt:
The Commodity Channel Index for the current period.
TPt: The
typical price for the current period.
TPAVGt: The
moving average of the typical price.
.015: A
constant.
MDT:
The mean deviation for this period.
Buy/Sell Signals
For a line
drawing, a buy signal occurs when the CCI line crosses from below the
lower threshold to above the lower threshold. A sell signal occurs when
the CCI line crosses from above the upper threshold to below the upper
threshold.

For a histogram
drawing, a buy signal occurs when the CCI value crosses from below the 0
line to above the 0 line. A sell signal occurs when the CCI value
crosses from above the 0 line to below the 0 line.

Preferences
Right-click on
the CCI button in your Indicator toolbar and select CCI Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the CCI preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
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CCI
Period: The number of bars, or interval, used to calculate the
study. Default is 20.
CCI: Choose
the color, line style, and line thickness of your line. Select
Standard and choose between a line or a histogram from the dropdown
menu. Select W-CCI to display a histogram divided in the middle
and choose two colors from the dropdown menu.
View up to four
Thresholds at values and colors of your choice. When calculating
buy/sell signals, Threshold 1 is used as the upper threshold and
Threshold 2 is used as the lower threshold (default values set at 100
and -100).
Choose when you
want Buy/Sell Arrows to show and what color.
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Chaikin Money
Flow (CMF)
The Chaikin
Money Flow Indicator is an oscillator developed by Marc Chaikin. An
oscillator is an indicator that is used as a counter trend showing when
the market is overbought or oversold. These indicators are momentum
based. The CMF is based largely on the Accumulation Distribution Line;
it compares the close value with the high and the low for that same day.
By comparing the
close to the high and low, the CMF is determining if the market has
pressure to sell or buy. In doing this, the CMF is giving an indication
of overbought and oversold by using these comparisons. If the market is
consistently closing in the top region of the price bar and there is an
increase in volume (showing an increase in the number of trades) then
CMF exhibits a positive value. If the market is consistently closing in
the bottom region of the price bar and there’s an increase in volume,
CMF exhibits a negative value.
When the CMF
indicator crosses the zero line either up or down, this is an indication
of a change in trend. Traders use this indicator to help confirm
breakout signals from either support or resistance trend lines.
Calculation
The calculation
of the CMF is here:
CMF = SUM(AD, n)
/ SUM(VOL, n)
where n = Period
AD = VOL x (CL -
OP) / (HI - LO)
AD stands for Accumulation Distribution
Buy/Sell Signals
A buy signal
occurs when the CMF value crosses from below the 0 line to above the 0
line. A sell signal occurs when the CMF value crosses from above the 0
line to below the 0 line.

Preferences
Right-click on
the CMF button in your Indicator toolbar and select CMF Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the CMF preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
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Period:
Specify the number of days to be used in calculating the CMF.
CMF+/CMF-:
Choose the color, line style, and line thickness of your lines.
Display as:
Choose between displaying CMF as a histogram or a line.
View up to four
Thresholds at values and colors of your choice. Choose when you
want Buy/Sell Arrows to show and what color.
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Directional Movement Index (DMI)
Wilder’s DMI is
similar to the historic volatility indicator because it shows market
tendencies. The main use of this tool is to show the strength of a
trend. This could direct the trader to use a trend following system or a
counter trend system in their trading. It also indicates possible price
reversals.
Directional
Moving Index is plotted as three lines on a scale of 0 to 100. This
scale is a measure of market trend. The two lines of DMI show the amount
of positive and negative movement. The positive line is called D+ and
the negative D-. The direction of these lines and the use of crossovers
can show the changes in the current market. The key to this indicator is
the ADX, or average of the difference of these two lines. The ADX is the
main factor in using this indicator. During periods of extreme price
variation the two lines can become very volatile, and the ADX is used to
compensate for this.
The best
application of DMI is present when used with another indicator. DMI
should either confirm or contradict the indicator being used. It is also
best to use DMI in long-term trade situations. Because the study is not
as sensitive as other indicators it is appropriate to use it as a
confirmation tool. When the DMI is advancing, the average is higher on
the 0 to 100 scale, trend following systems are best employed. Likewise,
with a decreasing DMI average, the line is lower on the scale, closer to
0, so a counter trend system might be best. These traits represent the
fact that as the average line goes higher in the scale the strength of
the trend is gaining, and as the ADX goes lower the trend is losing
strength. It is also important to look at the individual lines for
changes in price movement.
The other
application for DMI is to look at the D+ and D- lines themselves. When
the D+ line crosses above the D- line a buy signal is initiated. This
indicates that the positive price direction is greater than the
negative. Conversely, once the D+ line crosses below the D- line, a sell
trigger is present. The negative price movement is overtaking the
positive.
Welles Wilder
himself said that he was not comfortable using these two lines by
themselves. When looking at reversals, the ADX should be above both
lines, and once it turns lower we should see a change in market
direction. You should also look to ADX for confirmation.
This application
is much the same as momentum, showing a change in the market sentiment.
Wilder also says that a trend following system should not be used when
the ADX line is below both D lines, as this means that the market has no
discernible direction.
When using the
D+ and D- crossover method, Wilder stresses the use of an extreme point.
On the day the crossover occurs, the extreme point is the high or low of
the day (high for a buy, and low for a sell). The market should be able
to take out that price and stay beyond it for several days before the
trade is initiated or exited. This use of extreme points should keep the
trader from getting into whipsaws or false breakouts.
Calculation
The computations
needed to generate the final figures for the DMI are not complex but are
numerous and lengthy. The following discussion attempts to unravel the
computational mysteries of the DMI. If you need further explanation,
please refer to the author’s original work. The book titled New
Concepts in Technical Trading Systems by J. Welles Wilder, Jr.,
explains this indicator and several others.
You must first
compute the directional movement, DM, for the current trading interval.
Directional movement can be up, down, or zero. If directional movement
is up, it is labeled as +DM, and -DM refers to downward directional
movement. Wilder defines directional movement as the largest part of the
current trading range that is outside the previous trading range. From a
mathematical view, it is the largest value between two equations:
Hight - Hight-1
or Lowt - Lowt-1
This is only
true when the current low is less than the previous low, or the current
high exceeds the previous high. Both of these conditions do not have to
be met, only one. It is the largest portion of the trading range outside
of the previous trading range.
It is possible
for the directional movement to be zero. This occurs when the current
trading range is inside the previous trading range, or when the trading
ranges, current versus previous, are equal.
Directional
movement is up, or positive, when the difference between the highs is
the greatest. It is down, or negative, when the difference between the
lows is the largest value. The up directional movement is +DM and down
directional movement is -DM. Do not let the plus and minus sign
designation mislead you. They only indicate upward or downward movement,
not values. The directional movement value is always a positive number,
or absolute value, regardless of upward or downward movement. This
concept is crucial to understanding the computations for the indicator.
If you are confused, draw some illustrations or work with actual price
data to determine the directional movement values.
The next step in
determining the DMI is to compute the true range. The true range (TR) is
always a positive number. According to the Wilder, the true range is the
largest value of three equations:
Hight - Lowt
Hight - Closet-1
Lowt - Closet-1
Continue this
process for the specified trading interval. In this example, use a value
of 14. This is the same value Wilder used on daily data. His logic for
using this value is that it represents an average half-cycle period.
When this task is accomplished for the specified interval, you compute
the average value of the +DM, -DM, and TR. Wilder prefers to use an
accumulation technique rather than computing a pure moving average. It
is a short cut designed to save computational time and effort:
Averaget =
(Averaget-1 - (Averaget-1 / n)) + Valuet
When you
substitute the above symbols, you these equations:
+DMt = (+DMt-1 -
(+DMt-1 / n)) + (+DMt)
-DMt = (-DMt-1 -
(-DMt-1 / n)) + (-DMt)
TRt = (TRt-1 -
(TRt-1 / n)) + (TRt)
It is a
timesaving convention. This indicator was developed before
microcomputers were invented. The only tool available was the desktop
calculator or adding machine. You could spend a great deal of time and
effort calculating averages.
You now have the
average values. The next step is to compute the directional indicator.
It can be either up or down, depending upon the directional movement. On
up intervals use this calculation:
+DI = (+DM / TR)
x 100
On a down
interval use this formula:
-DI = (-DM / TR)
x 100
The plus and
minus directional indicator values are computed as percentage figures.
You are expressing the percentage of the average true range for both up
and down trading intervals.
If you have
followed this process so far, the last few steps are relatively simple.
You compute the difference between the +DI and the -DI. Remember to use
the absolute value of this difference (Convert any negative value into a
positive number).
DIdiff = |
((+DI) - (-DI)) |
Compute the sum
of the directional indicator values using this formula:
DIsum = ((+DI) +
(-DI))
Once you compute
the DIdiff and the DIsum, you can calculate the DX or directional
movement index. This value is always a percentage:
DX = (DIdiff /
DIsum) x 100
The DX is always
a value between 0 and 100. If your calculations exceed this range, you
have made an error. Wilder was not comfortable using just the
directional movement index. It could become very volatile during periods
of extreme price movement, especially markets that rise and fall
quickly. He implements his accumulated moving average technique to
smooth the DX. The result is the ADX or average directional movement
index. This is the computational procedure:
ADXt = ( (ADXt-1
x (n - 1) ) + DXt) / n
Buy/Sell Signals
A buy signal
occurs when the DMI+ line crosses from below the DMI- line to above the
DMI- line. A sell signal occurs when the DMI+ line crosses from above
the DMI- line to below the DMI- line.

Filters to Adjust Buy/Sell Signals
Extreme Point
Validation : This filter delays the buy/sell
arrows at least a day by requiring that the market move higher or lower
than the high or low on the day the DM+,DM- crossover happened. If a new
high or low is not obtained before the next DM+,- crossover, the
buy/sell arrow is suppressed completely for that previous period. The
filter does not require the use of DX/ADX, although it does stack with
the other filers if they are used.
Trend Strength:
The DX or ADX line must be above the target number before a DM+,- cross
will give a buy/sell arrow. The theory is the DX/ADX lines indicate
trend strength (not direction) and if it is below 20 there is
practically no trend. Values above 40 indicate a strong trend. Different
articles would use values between 20 and 40 as targets to look for. This
box must be selected for this rule to be available.
Turning Point
Validation: The directional index line (DX or ADX) must be above the
point where DM+,- crossed. This is like a variable trend strength
filter. The directional index can indicate any trend strengths as long
as the trend strength is greater than the value of the DM+,- crossing
point. This indicator also requires that the directional index line be
on.
Preferences
Right-click on
the DMI button in your Indicator toolbar and select DMI Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the DMI preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
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DMI
Period: The number of bars, or interval, used to calculate the
study. Default is 14.
ADX Period:
Specify the number of price bars used in calculating ADX.
DMI+, DMI-,
DM: Choose the color, line style, and line thickness of your
line. Select Use Relative Scaling to change the 100% location to
the highest point value in the DMI indicator.
View up to four
Thresholds at values and colors of your choice. Threshold 1 is
used for Trend Strength (default value set at 40).
Choose when you
want Buy/Sell Arrows to show and what color. Select if you would
like to view Extreme Point Validation, Trend Strength, or
Turning Point Validation filters.
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Fast Stochastics
(FSTO)
The Stochastic
Process was invented by Dr. George C. Lane under the basic premise that
during periods of decrease, daily closes tend to accumulate near the
extreme low of the day and, conversely, during periods of increase,
daily closes tend to accumulate near the extreme highs of the day.
This indicator
is designed to show conditions of overbought and oversold markets.
Stochastics are divided into two types: Regular Stochastics, often
referred to as Fast Stochastics, and Slow Stochastics. Fast Stochastics
are more sensitive to price changes and can give a lot in the
short-term, hence the need for Slow Stochastics.
Stochastics
display two lines that move in a vertical scale between 0 and 100,
representing percentiles from 0% to 100%. Think of the level of
Stochastics as where the most current close is within a specific range.
If Stochastics are reading 50%, the current close is in the middle of
the price range for a specified period of time. If Stochastics are
reading 100%, the close is at the high of the range, and 0% represents
the current close price being at the low of the range. This will help
you to understand why Stochastics are a counter trend indicator, in that
the underlying principle behind Stochastics is that prices will move
back to the center of the trading range, or the opposite extreme.
When both lines
move to an area below 20 on this scale they are said to be in an
oversold zone. Conversely, when both %K and %D move to above 80 on this
same scale they are indicating an overbought zone. It is this indication
of market sentiment that makes this counter trend indicator useful.
George Lane
emphasized that the most important signal generated by this method was
the difference or divergence between %D and the underlying market price.
He said that the divergence is where %D line makes a group of lower
highs while the market makes a series of higher highs. This would
indicate an overbought condition. The reverse would be true of an
oversold market, with %D making higher lows and prices making lower
lows.
As with a dual
moving average system, when the faster reacting indicator crosses the
slower moving indicator, a buy or sell is signaled. Because Stochastics
give an indication of either overbought or oversold, you would first
want to see both lines in the above 80 or below 20 range, and sloping
out of that range back to the middle before looking for these trade
triggers.
Calculation
The first step
in computing the stochastic indicator is to determine the n
period high and low. Suppose you specified twenty periods for the
stochastic. Determine the highest high and lowest low during the last
twenty trading intervals. It determines the trading range for that time
period. The trading range changes on a continuous basis. The
calculations for the %K is here:
%Kt = ( (Closet
- Lown) / (Highn - Lown) ) x 100
%Kt: The
value for the first %K for the current time period.
Closet:
The closing price for the current period.
Lown: The
lowest low during the n periods.
Highn: The
highest high during the n time periods.
n: The value
you specify.
Once you obtain
the %K value, you start computing the %D value which is an accumulative
moving average. Since the %D is a moving average of a moving average, it
requires several trading intervals before the values are calculated
properly. If you specify a 20 period stochastic, the software system
requires 26 trading intervals before it can calculate valid %K and %D
values. The formula for the %D is here:
%DT = ( (%DT-1 x
2) + %Kt) / 3
%DT:
The value for %D in the current period.
%DT-1: The
value for %D in the previous period.
%Kt: The
value for %K in the current period.
The values 2 and
3 are constants. You specify the constants and the length of the time
period to examine for the trading range.
Buy/Sell Signals
A buy signal
occurs when both lines are below the lower threshold and the %K line
crosses from below the %D line to above the %D line. A sell signal
occurs when both lines are above the upper threshold and the %K line
crosses from above the %D line to below the %D line.

Preferences
Right-click on
the FSTO button in your Indicator toolbar and select FSTO Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the FSTO preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
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FSTO
Period: The number of periods to be used to determine the highest
high and lowest low. Default is 14.
FSTO Smoothing:
The number of periods to be used to determine the moving average for the
%D value.
%K/%D:
Choose the color, line style, and line thickness of your %K and %D
lines.
Calculation:
Choose between Exponential, Simple, and Wilder’s Smoothing calculations.
View up to four
Thresholds at values and colors of your choice. When calculating
buy/sell signals, Threshold 1 is used as the upper threshold and
Threshold 2 is used as the lower threshold (default values set at 80 and
20).
Choose when you
want Buy/Sell Arrows to show and what color.
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Gator (GTR)
Fractal geometry
and nonlinear dynamics is used to create the method of calculations for
the Gator Indicator. Used in combination with the Alligator, an Overlay
Indicator, the Gator has proved to be effective at pinpointing large
market trends.
The Gator was
created on a relative scale; what seems to be a large move in the market
today may well be just a small move on the historical scale, since the
Gator graphically represents itself only against its own historical
price line. As the market trends, the Gator will also trend, causing
historical representations of market momentum and movement to pale in
comparison.
Example of the
GTR in the Indicator Window

Preferences
Right-click on
the GTR button in your Indicator toolbar and select GTR Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the GTR preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
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Jaws,
Teeth, Lips: Specify your periods and shift
specifications.
Type: Select
Simple, Linear Weight, or Exponential.
Data: Choose
the data you would like to be calculated.
Up/Down:
Select the color of the histogram when the value is up or down.
View up to four
Thresholds at values and colors of your choice.
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Historic Volatility (HVOL)
The Historic
Volatility indicator is used mainly as an option evaluation tool. It
does not give trading signals like those given with other technical
indicators. It gives the trader an idea of how volatile the market has
been for a previous period of time.
Changing the
period of time the study observes allows the trader to finetune options
prices. If a market has been extremely volatile for the past 3 months,
for example, near term options should be more expensive. If the market
has been calm for an extended period of time, longer term options should
be reasonable. In futures, we use it for observation. It tells us if
prices are calming down or becoming more erratic.
The key to using
historic volatility is determining the correct period of time for each
market. The market you are looking at may show a history of volatility
years ago, but has been relatively calm the last few months. Getting an
idea of the markets behavior recently may be of no use to the trader
that is looking at distant options.
For the futures
trader, this tool is useful as a guide for order placement. Changing
market volatility may indicate that it is time to move stops closer or
farther away. If the trader is profitable with the trend and volatility
is changing, it might be a time to move stops closer to protect profits.
If a trader is trading against the trend, he might want to move stops
further away to avoid getting bumped out prematurely.
Options traders
could use this study to help them purchase profitable options. The basic
idea is to buy options when volatility is decreasing to take advantage
of a change in that volatility. Any rise in volatility will translate to
an increase in option values. Look at options strategies that take
advantage of low volatility, such as straddles or ratio spreads. When
volatility is high, selling options would be better because any decrease
in volatility will translate to a loss of option value. Option
strategies that take advantage of a decrease in volatility are strangles
and regular short option positions.
Obviously,
historic volatility is only one component of option pricing. Any changes
in the underlying futures market could negate the changes in option
prices due to volatility. For example, if you were to buy a low
volatility Put option and prices go higher, that option will lose value
but not as quickly as a higher volatility option.
For the futures
trader, the basic concept is to expect market changes during periods of
increased volatility. George Soros, the trading legend, said "Short term
volatility is greatest at a turn around and diminishes as a trend
becomes established."
This indicator
is commonly viewed as very mean regressive. What this term means is that
the historic volatility indicator tends to return to the opposite end of
the spectrum and therefore return to an average. If volatility is great
it will eventually cool off and return to that place. If volatility is
low it will not stay quiet forever. What this means to traders is that a
market that is erratic will sooner or later calm down and a market that
is quiet will eventually get loud again.
Calculation
The calculation
for the historical volatility is rather involved. The number of periods
per year vary depending on the type of price chart used for the study.
The following table lists the number of periods for each type of chart:
| Chart Type |
Trading Periods Per Year |
| Perpetual |
262 |
| Daily |
262 |
| Weekly |
52 |
| Monthly |
12 |
| Variable |
Based on chart period (see below) |
| Tick |
Not available for this study |
When using
variable charts, you must first calculate the number of trading periods
per year. To do this, you must determine the trading time of the
selected commodity. The formula is as follows:
TP = (Tt / Pn) x
262
TP:
The total number of trading periods per year.
Tt: The
total trading time in a day.
Pn: The
length of the period.
262: The
number of weekdays per year.
Example: The
S&P 500 trades from 8:30 a.m. to 3:15 p.m. That is a total trading time
of 6 hours and 45 minutes. On a variable chart using 5 minute bars, the
number of periods for the day is 81:
6 hours x 60
minutes = 360 minutes + 45 minutes
Total minutes of
trading = 405 minutes
405 / 5 minute
bars = 81 trading periods per day
Now that you
have calculated the trading periods per day, you now must calculate the
number of periods for the year. Since historical volatility considers
every weekday of the year when calculating total periods for the year,
the multiplier is 262:
TP = (405/5) x
262
TP = 81 x 262
TP = 21,222
Note:
This formula applies only to historical volatility on
a variable chart. It does not apply to other chart types.
Now that you
have the total number of periods per year, continue with the calculation
of the historical volatility, by calculating the logarithm of the price
change for each price in the specified time span of n periods:
LOGSi = LOG(Pi /
Pi-1)
LOG:
The logarithm function.
Pi:
The current price.
Pi-1: The
previous price.
Now that you
have the logarithms of the price changes, calculate the total logarithms
for the time span you are reviewing:

Tlogs: The
total of the logarithm price ratio for the time span.
S: Indicates
to sum all n logarithms.
LOGSi: The
logarithm of the price change for period i.
N:
The number of periods for the specified time span.
The next step is
to calculate the average of the logs by dividing the total logarithm by
the number of periods:
ALOGS = Tlogs /
n
ALOGS:
The average of the logarithms.
Tlogs: The
total of the logarithm for the time span.
N: The
number of periods for the specified time span.
The last
calculation is to sum the squares of the difference between the
individual logarithms for each period and the average logarithm:

SSD: The sum
of the squared differences.
S: Indicates
to total the squares of all n differences.
LOGSi: The
logarithm of the price change for period i.
ALOGS: The
average of the logarithms.
Now that the
elements of the final formula are complete, the following formula
calculates the historical volatility for a given period over a specified
time span:

SSD: The sum
of the squared differences.
n: The
number of periods for the specified time span.
TP: The
total number of trading periods for the year.
Due to the
complexity of the formula, it is preferable to use a scientific
calculator when attempting to manually calculate the historical
volatility of a futures instrument.
Example of
Historical Velocity in the Indicator Window

Preferences
Right-click on
the HVOL button in your Indicator toolbar and select HVOL Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the HVOL preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
 |
HVOL
Period: The number of bars, or period, used to calculate the study.
Default is 20. You may use any number greater than 1 for the close.
HVOL: Choose
the color, line style, and line thickness of your line. Click to Show
Relative Scaling if you want the 100% location to be changed to the
highest point value in the indicator.
View up to four
Thresholds at values and colors of your choice.
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Know Sure Thing
(KST)
The Know Sure
Thing (KST) Indicator is an oscillator developed by Martin J. Ping that
gives bullish and bearish momentum signals. The difference between this
indicator and other oscillators is that it takes into consideration four
time periods instead of only one. Each time period is smoothed using a
moving average. Also, each time period is weighted differently depending
on length, so a longer time period would have greater weight. Because of
the consideration of the various time periods, the KST is able to react
quicker to price moves.
Watch for
bullish and bearish momentum signals in the KST indicator. When the KST
turns upward, this is a bullish signal, and when the KST turns down,
this is a bearish signal. More confirmation is given when the trigger
line crosses the KST line as a result of the change in direction.
There are two
lines: the trigger line and the KST line. The KST line is a result of
the four moving averages smoothed as well as the Rate of Change or ROC.
The trigger line is a moving average of the KST.
Buy/Sell Signals
A buy signal
occurs when the KST line is below the 0 line and crosses from below the
trigger line to above the trigger line. A sell signal occurs when the
KST line above the 0 line and crosses from above the trigger line to
below the trigger line.

Preferences
Right-click on
the KST button in your Indicator toolbar and select KST Settings. The
Preferences Tab will open in the Control Panel and the KST preferences
will be displayed. (Once you click on the chart, the Preference tab will
go back to chart settings.)
Restore
Settings: TNT Default will change your settings back to the original
software settings. My Default will change current settings to your
personalized default settings. Apply To All Charts will apply your
selected settings on all open charts. Save As My Default will save your
current personal settings.
 |
MA:
Specify the number of days used in calculating the period and ROC period
of the 1, 2, 3, and 4 moving average lines.
Trigger Period:
Specify the number of days used in calculating the trigger period.
Choose between a histogram or line.
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